Ah, it was how you described it: you weren't saying that your dividends
and RMDs sum to $32K, but rather that you're reinvesting $32K out of
the sum of your current dividends & RMDs. In any event, that's simply
just reinforcing the point I was making that you're still "flipped"
in terms of your priorities: your nest egg is already sufficient,
so you need not be reinvesting (hoarding) for yourself, but now in
a more distributive mode. For example, to use this $32K to bump up
your $20K/yr vacation budget.
> > > 2. 401k account dividends/0.377 = 401k value
> >
> > Incorrect math
> >
>
> I probably should have said RMD not dividends.
> The math is correct. If you multiply the account
> balance by the RMD % you get the annual RMD.
> If you divide the RMD amount by the RMD % you get
> the account balance.
Looks like your mistake was to conflate account growth
(dividends) with the account's RMD requirement. Simply
put, you take your end-of-year 401k account balance and
divide by your IRS age factor (yours is currently 26.5).
So for a EOY16 401k balance of $820K, your 2017 RMD for
your 401k is $30.9K. The same is also then done for a
non-Roth IRA:
> > > 3. IRS account dividends/0.377 = IRA value
> >
> > Incorrect math
> >
> > > The $32k is the sum of the dividends and the 401k RMD.
> >
> > Dividends from YA account which hadn't been
> > clearly delineated as such before.
>
> Mentioned, but not it's weight in the portfolio.
For an IRA balance @ EOY2016 of $615K, 2017 RMD = $23.2K
> > > What you don't know is the weighted average percentage
> > > for the dividend account and 401k RMD % yields.
> > >
> > > Figure it's mostly 401k, and say about 3.9% is the weighted average.
> >
> > So then the 5% claimed a few hours ago wasn't what it appear
> > to represent. Gosh, golly: more confiscation by Tom.
Reexamining, it appears more that the 401k and IRA are yielding
~3.9%, which would nominally mean that while the RMDs are taking
out $31K+$23K = $54K, the investment is growing roughly by about
the same (3.9% of $820K+$615K = $56K), with the net effective
result that this income stream is being taxed, and half? of it
is being put into a non-retirement brokerage account or equivalent
to probably the tune of the $32K that Tom's been talking about.
> > > $32/.039 = $820k
> > >
> > > Figure the IRA is about 75% of that, $615.
> >
> > Which, according to what Tom would like us to believe, somehow isn't
> > within the previously stated "...ballpark of around $550K - $730K."
>
> You were working off the $32k amount. The IRA RMD is not being
> reinvested in stocks and was not included. It's additive to the $32k.
But still quoted above: "In fact, 50% of my RMD cash flow is currently
going back into stock investments."
Since both the IRA and 401k have required RMDs, the term of "my RMD"
includes both, so when you try to then talk about the RMDs individually,
it is highly conflated.
> > > That's another $23k a year cash in not being reinvested.
> > > Then too there is one relatively minor diversified stock account
> > > that is in dividend reinvestment not accounted for above, but
> > > that's most of it. There is also some life insurance cash value
> > > that yields about 5% a year, and a few other relatively minor items.
> >
> > Life Insurance cash values? Well, but of course it is only natural
> > for Tom to penny-pinch his accounting right down to the last nickel.
>
> It's a tax-free backstop. It's like money in the bank, available
> for emergencies. I have a friend who has over $1,0000,000 in such
> funds available. Mine is much more modest.
"Whoosh!".
> > > You have my address. Look up the Zillow estimate. Check out
> > > the actual sale value of the house 2 doors to the east of mine.
> > > If you cannot find it, $320k. It's the same floor plan, similar
> > > improvements. The sale was in June.
> >
> > You can do the same here, but do realize that the house next door which
> > was sold this past December was the price for a knock-down which is being
> > flipped. The builder's planned asking price is $575K (slightly lower than
> > a similar one ~2 blocks away that's reportedly being listed at $599K).
> >
> > Oh, and this town's crime safety rating is 89, vs your Carmel's score
> > of only 70.
>
> Good for you.
Indeed, and it also isn't in "Flyover Country": for interests such
as International Travel, we can easily compete/compare 3+ local
International Hubs for our travels; in fact, for last fall's trip
to Africa, we did just that and chose to go out of JFK instead of
EWR to get a nonstop to Johannesburg: 16hrs beats ~30hrs transit.
> Denville sounds like a nice place too. However, it's 25% of the
> population of Carmel.
And population was the first screening requirement in the survey
you quoted, which is was why it wasn't competed against Carmel.
> Smaller towns generally tend to be safer. But, if you focus
> on violent crime, the Carmel rate is 0.15/1000 while Denville
> is 0.25/1000. In that sense, Carmel is safer.
Not really, once one understands statistics and sampling noise:
such events are integers and the rate includes population in
the denominator. For example, at 15K population:
2 events/year = 0.13/1000 rate
3 events/year = 0.20/1000 rate
4 events/year = 0.26/1000 rate
As such, does one really need to be concerned about a delta
of only two (2) events per year? Nope: the error here is
in trying to claim significance on values which are more
subject to statistical sampling noise.
> Summary:
>
> $820 + $615 + $300 = $1,735,000 Those are the big pieces.
Where the above is {401k}, {IRA}, and {House}.
Now since you previously claimed a net worth of $2.1M,
the "small pieces" sum to ~$400K...or your prior claim
of $2.1M was a significant overstatement.
-hh